Can Electoral Reforms Restore Public Trust Before 2027 in Nigeria?

Harry Archie August 28, 2026

“When citizens stop believing that their votes matter, democracy ceases to be government by the people and becomes little more than political theatre.”

As Nigeria moves steadily toward the 2027 general elections, familiar promises are once again dominating political conversations.

Government officials insist that recent amendments to the country’s electoral laws will deliver more credible elections, while political parties speak confidently about strengthening democracy.

Yet beyond official statements lies a far more difficult question: Are Nigeria’s electoral reforms designed to restore public trust, or are they simply repairing the image of a system that many citizens no longer believe in?

The country’s democratic crisis is no longer defined solely by disputed election results. It is increasingly defined by declining public confidence. Each election cycle appears to produce new electoral reforms, new technologies and new assurances from electoral authorities, yet voter participation continues to fall while public scepticism grows.

For many Nigerians, the greatest threat to democracy is no longer ballot-box manipulation alone. It is the growing belief that elections have become predictable political rituals whose outcomes rarely reflect the expectations of ordinary citizens.

The 2023 Election Changed More Than a Government

The 2023 general elections were widely presented as a turning point for Nigerian democracy. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) introduced the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV), promising that technology would improve transparency, reduce manipulation and strengthen public confidence in election results.

Instead, the election became one of the most disputed in Nigeria’s democratic history.

The NDI/IRI Joint International Election Observation Mission Final Report (2023) documented significant logistical failures, operational shortcomings and concerns surrounding the management and transmission of election results. At the same time, the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) reported widespread incidents of vote buying, voter intimidation and election-related violence across states including Lagos, Rivers, Delta, Imo, Kogi, Jigawa, Sokoto, Edo and Nasarawa. According to the Commission, disruptions affected approximately 8 percent of monitored polling units.

For millions of Nigerians, these events reinforced a painful conclusion. Technology can improve elections, but technology cannot compensate for weak institutions or inconsistent implementation. Digital innovation may reduce some forms of electoral malpractice, but it cannot restore confidence where public trust has already been deeply damaged.

Nigeria Is Not Just Losing Elections—It Is Losing Voters

Perhaps the clearest evidence of this growing distrust is not found in election petitions or court judgments but in voter turnout itself.

According to analyses published by Daily Trust and the NDI/IRI Election Observation Mission, only about 25 million Nigerians voted in the 2023 presidential election despite more than 93 million registered voters. Voter turnout fell to approximately 27 percent, down from 34.74 percent in 2019, making it the lowest participation rate recorded in Nigeria’s modern democratic history.

These figures should concern every political leader regardless of party affiliation.

A democracy survives not merely because elections are held but because citizens believe participating in those elections can produce meaningful change. When millions deliberately choose not to vote, the problem extends beyond voter apathy. It reflects declining confidence that the electoral process genuinely represents the will of the people.

A post-election assessment by Chatham House (2023) concluded that worsening economic hardship, insecurity and declining confidence in democratic institutions significantly contributed to public disengagement from the electoral process.

Vote Buying Has Become Part of the Electoral System

If declining turnout reflects growing disillusionment, vote buying demonstrates how deeply money has become embedded in Nigeria’s electoral culture.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its Corruption in Nigeria Survey, found that 22 percent of Nigerians reported being offered money or other inducements in exchange for their votes during the 2023 elections, compared with 17 percent in 2019. In Nigeria’s North-West geopolitical zone, the figure reportedly reached 44 percent, suggesting that financial inducement has become an increasingly influential feature of electoral competition.

Electoral irregularities were not confined to any single political party. A statistical analysis conducted by Joachim McEbong of Pan-Atlantic University, reported by TheCable, identified unusually high polling-unit anomaly rates across several states, including Anambra, widely regarded as a stronghold of the Labour Party. These findings suggest that Nigeria’s electoral weaknesses are systemic rather than partisan.

This reality challenges one of Nigeria’s most persistent political narratives. Electoral malpractice is not simply the problem of one party or one election. It reflects structural weaknesses that successive governments have struggled or failed to address.

The Electoral Act 2026: Genuine Reform or Democratic Public Relations?

Supporters of the Electoral Act 2026 argue that it represents the most significant reform of Nigeria’s electoral framework in recent years. According to analyses published by The Guardian Nigeria and The Conversation, the legislation formally recognises the use of BVAS and the IReV portal, provides statutory backing for electronic transmission of Form EC8A, establishes penalties for officials who deliberately obstruct electronic result transmission, creates a dedicated funding mechanism for INEC and limits political parties to direct and consensus primaries.

These provisions undoubtedly strengthen aspects of electoral administration.

The bigger question, however, is whether they strengthen public confidence.

Critics argue that important loopholes remain. Manual alternatives to electronic transmission are still permitted under certain circumstances, preserving much of the discretion that generated controversy during the 2023 elections. Others have questioned the decision to increase campaign spending limits, including raising the presidential spending ceiling to ₦10 billion, arguing that the reforms make elections even more financially inaccessible for candidates without enormous political resources.

The Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), as reported by Daily Trust, warned that limited reforms and prolonged delays in passing the legislation could deepen voter apathy rather than rebuild public confidence.

Nigeria’s Electoral Crisis Is Really a Trust Crisis

Perhaps the greatest challenge confronting Nigeria’s democracy has little to do with election technology. It is trust.

According to the Africa Polling Institute’s Nigeria Social Cohesion Survey (June 2026), only 23 percent of Nigerians expressed trust in the National Assembly, while 28 percent trusted President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration and just 24 percent expressed confidence in the Nigeria Police Force. By contrast, 51 percent trusted religious leaders and 45 percent placed greater confidence in traditional rulers.

These findings suggest that electoral reform alone cannot repair Nigeria’s democratic deficit because elections are conducted by institutions whose credibility many citizens already question.

When trust disappears across public institutions, electoral reforms inevitably struggle to produce the legitimacy they were intended to create.

Why Many Observers Remain Unconvinced

Several governance experts argue that Nigeria’s electoral problems are institutional rather than technological.

According to Punch Newspapers, legal disputes surrounding the operational independence of INEC continue to generate uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections. Meanwhile, improvements in election technology have not translated into stronger civic participation. The Centre for Democracy and Development West Africa (CDD-West Africa) reported that turnout during recent off-cycle elections, including Anambra State, remained at only 21.4 percent despite improvements in Permanent Voter Card collection.

Observer organisations including CDD-West Africa, YIAGA Africa and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) have also documented the continued influence of money politics, electoral violence and organised disinformation campaigns.

Perhaps most troubling is the continued absence of accountability. Allegations of electoral offences emerge after almost every election, yet successful prosecutions remain relatively rare. This has reinforced public perceptions that electoral misconduct carries limited legal consequences.

The Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room has consistently argued that credible elections require more than legislative amendments. They require genuinely independent institutions, transparent result management and consistent enforcement of electoral laws regardless of political affiliation.

Can Public Trust Be Rebuilt Before 2027?

The answer depends less on the existence of new laws than on whether existing laws are implemented without fear or favour.

The Electoral Act 2026 introduces administrative improvements that could strengthen Nigeria’s electoral process. But legislation alone cannot restore confidence where institutions remain politically contested and accountability remains inconsistent.

Without stronger institutional independence for INEC, meaningful prosecution of electoral offences, tighter regulation of campaign finance and broader efforts to reduce the poverty that fuels vote buying, electoral reforms risk becoming another cycle of well-intentioned promises that fail to change public perception.

The evidence presented by The Guardian Nigeria, Daily Trust, Punch Newspapers, The Conversation, NDI/IRI, NHRC, NBS, the Africa Polling Institute, CDD-West Africa, YIAGA Africa, ACLED, CISLAC, TheCable and Chatham House points to one uncomfortable conclusion.

Nigeria’s democratic challenge is no longer the absence of electoral reforms.

It is the widening gap between electoral reform and public trust.

If that gap remains unaddressed before 2027, Nigeria may once again conduct an election that is legally organised but socially unconvincing, with millions of citizens delivering their strongest political statement not by casting a ballot, but by staying away from the polling unit altogether.