Food, Power, and Politics: Who Controls Nigeria’s Agricultural Value Chain?
The Paradox of Plenty
Nigeria is the world’s largest producer of cassava and possesses millions of hectares of arable land.
Yet food insecurity continues to rise. The problem is not production alone. It is control.
Farmers grow the food, but they do not control pricing, storage, or market access. Politicians control funding, but that funding often fails to reach those who need it. Meanwhile, smuggling networks exploit weak borders, undercutting local production and distorting markets.
The result is a broken value chain where those at the bottom produce, but those at the top profit.
The Funding Crisis: When Billions Do Not Reach the Farm
In February 2026, Nigeria’s House of Representatives launched an investigation into ₦174.26 billion in agricultural intervention funds that allegedly never reached farmers. These funds, sourced from international partners such as the African Development Bank and the Japan International Cooperation Agency, were intended to support hundreds of thousands of smallholder farmers.
The consequences of this delay are severe. Farmers missed critical planting windows in 2025, reducing output and threatening future harvests. Additional funding tied to performance benchmarks is now at risk, and the 2026 farming season faces uncertainty.
Honourable Bello Ka’oje, Chairman of the House Committee on Agricultural Production, warned that delays in releasing these funds have heightened concerns over food insecurity. The issue is not the absence of money. It is the failure of distribution.
This raises a fundamental question. If funding exists but does not reach farmers, who controls the system that decides where it goes?
The Rice War: Smugglers Versus Local Producers
While farmers struggle with funding, another battle is unfolding across Nigeria’s borders.
Smuggling has become one of the most disruptive forces in the agricultural value chain. Reports indicate that over 90 local rice mills have shut down nationwide, affecting more than 100,000 jobs and millions of farmers connected to the rice ecosystem.
The economics are simple. Smuggled rice enters Nigeria through porous borders at prices far below what local producers can match. These imports bypass tariffs, taxes, and production costs, making them artificially cheaper.
Dr. Andy Ekwelem of the Rice Processors Association of Nigeria explained that local producers cannot compete with a system where illegal imports dominate pricing.
Government officials, including Senator John Owan Enoh, have acknowledged the threat, noting that such practices undermine domestic production. Yet the persistence of smuggling raises difficult questions about enforcement.
If borders remain open to illegal trade despite policy declarations, who benefits from this imbalance?
The Price Collapse: When Farmers Lose While Consumers Still Pay More
Perhaps the most paradoxical crisis is unfolding within the market itself.
While consumers face rising food prices, farmers are experiencing declining crop prices. Staples such as rice, yam, and cassava have seen price drops at the farm level, leaving producers unable to recover their costs.
This contradiction highlights deeper structural failures.
Farmers often lack guaranteed buyers, forcing them to sell immediately after harvest at low prices. Storage facilities are limited, leading to post harvest losses. Processing capacity is weak, preventing raw produce from being converted into higher value goods. Market linkages between rural farms and urban consumers remain inefficient.
The House of Representatives has warned that if this trend continues, farmers may abandon agriculture altogether, reducing investment and worsening food insecurity.
The question is no longer about production. It is about who controls the systems that determine value.
Policy Responses: Reform or Reinvention of Control
In April 2026, the Senate advanced several agricultural bills aimed at addressing these challenges. These include proposals to establish a National Food Reserve Agency, a Cassava Policy Council, and a Rice Development Council.
On paper, these initiatives aim to stabilise prices, boost production, and strengthen value chains. However, they also introduce new layers of institutional control.
Each new agency represents not only a policy tool but also a potential centre of influence. The success of these reforms will depend not just on their design, but on their implementation.
Parallel to this, a new value chain programme supported by international partners has been launched across nine states. The initiative aims to move agriculture from subsistence to market driven production. While promising, its success depends on meeting strict implementation conditions, including funding, staffing, and governance structures.
The challenge is familiar. Nigeria has policies. What it struggles with is execution.
The Import Paradox: Spending Without Stability
Despite efforts to boost local production, Nigeria’s food import bill continues to rise.
From ₦3.83 trillion in 2023, it increased to ₦6.58 trillion in 2024, and then to ₦7.65 trillion in 2025. At the same time, government spending on food support programmes remains relatively small.
Temporary measures, such as removing import duties, have reduced inflation in the short term. But these gains have not been sustained. By March 2026, food inflation had risen again.
This cycle reflects a deeper issue. Importing food addresses immediate shortages but does not solve structural weaknesses in production and distribution.
The Structural Problem: Why the System Fails
According to analysis by the Food and Agriculture Organization, Nigeria’s agricultural challenges are rooted in underinvestment and policy inconsistency. Agricultural spending has remained around 2 percent of federal expenditure, far below the 10 percent target set by continental agreements.
The impact is visible across crops. While rice benefits from protective policies, other crops face weak market integration and poor export competitiveness. Infrastructure gaps, logistical challenges, and policy misalignment further limit growth.
The result is a system where production exists, but value is lost at every stage.
Conclusion: Who Really Controls the Food?
Nigeria’s agricultural crisis is not just about food. It is about power.
Farmers produce, but they do not control pricing. Government allocates funds, but distribution is inconsistent. Smugglers exploit gaps, and markets fail to connect supply with demand.
In this system, control is fragmented, and accountability is weak.
Until Nigeria fixes who controls funding, borders, and market access, the paradox will persist.
The country will continue to produce food, import food, and still struggle to feed its people.
Because in the end, the issue is not how much food Nigeria grows.
It is who controls what happens to it after it is grown.
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