The recent victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. 2024 Presidential Election has reignited debates over America’s global stance, particularly regarding its foreign policy with Africa.
Under Trump’s previous administration, U.S.-Africa relations were marked by isolationist policies, limited engagement, and a preference for a “domestic-first” approach.
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As Trump resumes office, many analysts and African leaders are questioning the direction U.S.-Africa relations may now take, with concerns about economic, security, and diplomatic ties on the forefront.
Trump’s Foreign Policy Dilemma
Trump’s past presidency was defined by a shift towards isolationism, with the former administration often emphasizing “America First.”
This stance led to a reduction in foreign aid, a key component of U.S.-Africa relations, and a notable lack of focus on African diplomacy, as evidenced by Trump being one of the few U.S. presidents not to visit the continent while in office.
Observers fear that a repeat of this strategy could weaken Africa’s influence on the international stage and stall progress in areas like healthcare, education, and development.
Priyal Singh, an analyst with the Institute for Security Studies, points out that Trump’s re-election is likely to “weaken the global multilateral system” that has often been crucial to African interests in development, trade, and security.
Economic Relations: Will AGOA Survive?
One of the vital links between the U.S. and Africa is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides tariff-free access to U.S. markets for eligible African countries.
Originally launched in 2000, AGOA supports numerous African economies through export benefits.
The Trump administration previously displayed little enthusiasm for AGOA, prioritizing domestic economic policies.
The act, set to expire in 2025, may face an uncertain future if Trump’s inward focus curtails its renewal or support.
Economists warn that a weakened AGOA could harm African economies, especially countries like South Africa, whose exports to the U.S. comprise nearly 9% of its trade.
However, Daniel Silke, a South African political analyst, argues that the U.S. may not completely abandon its economic ties with Africa, citing the growing geopolitical importance of Africa as a battleground for influence, particularly between the U.S. and China.
This rivalry might drive Trump’s administration to maintain or even bolster some economic engagements to counter China’s expansive Belt and Road Initiative across Africa, ensuring the continent remains economically intertwined with the U.S.
Security Concerns: Is Africa on the Backburner?
Security cooperation between the U.S. and Africa has historically focused on counter-terrorism, with the U.S. supporting African nations in combating terrorist activities, particularly in regions like the Sahel.
Analysts worry that Trump’s return may lead to a reduction in military aid and collaborative efforts, as isolationist policies tend to deprioritize such initiatives.
However, the U.S.’s continued interest in security across Africa could pressure the administration to sustain existing agreements. Some experts suggest that Trump may reluctantly maintain involvement in Africa’s security to curb instability that could give room for extremist groups, especially as China and Russia increasingly influence African security frameworks.
A Shift in Development Aid?
Trump’s previous policies included significant cuts to foreign aid and an overall reduction in resources allocated to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which administers various humanitarian and development programs in Africa.
Many African nations rely on these programs to improve healthcare, education, and infrastructure.
Critics worry that Trump’s focus on “making America great again” domestically could result in further cuts to such assistance, harming vital projects and hampering Africa’s progress in areas like healthcare.
The Biden administration’s support for climate change initiatives in Africa, for example, would likely be reversed under Trump, as he previously pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Accord and has repeatedly downplayed climate change’s significance.
Voices from the Continent
African leaders are responding to Trump’s victory with a mix of caution and pragmatism. Some, like Kenyan President William Ruto, have expressed hope that the U.S. will maintain its commitments to Africa, particularly in security and trade.
Yet, as political analyst Etse Sikanku from Ghana notes, Africa should brace for the likelihood that “Trump’s policies will lean inward, with minimal regard for multilateral cooperation.”
Others, like Nigerian economist Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, highlight the potential for Africa to seek stronger ties with alternative partners like China and the European Union if U.S. relations falter.
Call to Action: Redefining Africa’s Role in U.S. Policy
As Africa faces the implications of Trump’s re-election, African leaders and institutions must strategize to secure their interests in U.S.-Africa relations.
A proactive stance is necessary, focusing on strengthening intra-continental partnerships and diversifying diplomatic relations.
African leaders should prioritize creating a united front to engage the Trump administration on mutually beneficial terms, lobbying for sustained support through AGOA, security cooperation, and development programs.
The onus is now on both U.S. and African leaders to acknowledge the complex challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
Africa, with its growing economic and geopolitical influence, has much to offer, but it must advocate assertively for its place on the global stage.
As Trump’s presidency unfolds, the continent’s strategic approach will determine whether U.S.-Africa relations can transcend the setbacks of isolationism and forge a path towards cooperative progress.